Construction in 2026: Where certainty comes from agility

• Most markets will see increases between 2% and 6%.
• Labour shortages, supply chains, energy costs, policy change and geopolitics are creating risks that are harder to predict.
• Organisations that plan for change and make decisions earlier will be better placed to manage cost and move forward with confidence.

Find out more about building certainty into your projects by reading our latest report.

Construction costs globally are set to rise by 2.4% in 2026, but growing uncertainty is the real challenge to project delivery.

The findings are captured in ‘Construction in 2026: Where Certainty Comes from Agility’ a new report published by Currie & Brown, a world-leading provider of cost management, project management and advisory services.

In most countries, construction costs are forecast to rise between 2% and 6%, supported by steady demand across infrastructure, healthcare, technology and industrial sectors. A small number of markets sit outside this range. In China, costs are expected to remain flat. This has weighted down the global average. In Japan, escalation could reach 10% to 12%, due to labour shortages and material pressures. These outliers highlight how local market conditions can impact costs.

But moderate cost growth does not mean a simple delivery environment. Labour shortages, shifting trade tariffs, supply chain disruption, energy price volatility, climate events, conflict and policy change are all affecting construction markets. These risks are increasingly connected. A shift in one area can quickly create problems in another.

Alan Manuel, Group Chief Executive Officer at Currie & Brown, said: “In 2026, we’re predicting moderate cost escalation across most markets. But the real challenge comes from how quickly this picture can change.

“This volatile environment means that resilience is more important than ever. And that resilience comes from planning for change early. That means using data to test options, using technology to spot pressure sooner, and being clear about what must be fixed and what needs to stay flexible.”

How organisations can deliver with confidence in 2026

The report sets out practical steps organisations can take to stay in control and reduce cost risk, even in uncertain conditions:

• Set a realistic starting point early. Use current market data to test cost, programme and risk assumptions against real conditions and comparable projects.
• Plan for a small number of outcomes. Look at a few credible scenarios, then decide what to lock in early and where to stay flexible.
• Check labour and market capacity by location and phase. If skills or resources are tight, adjust scope, sequencing or procurement before plans are locked in.
• Make key decisions sooner. Confirm phasing, requirements and long-lead items earlier to reduce exposure later.
• Use technology to spot pressure earlier. Focus on tools that improve visibility, shorten decision cycles, and support faster, clearer choices.

Certainty comes from agility

In 2026, the most successful organisations will be those that act earlier, understand where pressure is likely to build, and keep flexibility where it matters most.

With cost increases remaining moderate across most markets but uncertainty rising, the challenge is less about predicting the market and more about staying in control as conditions change. In that environment, certainty comes from agility.