By Richard Hill, Director, Cost Consultancy
Leading up to UKREiiF 2026, one issue will shape the debate across the built environment. It will run through our infrastructure, data centre and public sector panels.
Delivery in the UK is getting harder. Not because of cost, but because of rising uncertainty.
There is a lot of focus on conflict in the Middle East. This is adding to uncertainty by pushing up energy prices and putting global supply chains under pressure. But geopolitical volatility is only part of the challenge. Pressure is also coming from labour shortages, with fewer people in the industry while demand for skills is rising faster than supply.
Deeper structural weakness is also driving uncertainty. CITB’s latest Industry Picture 2026 shows there are fewer people in the industry. Demand for skills is rising faster than supply.
All of this is making projects harder to manage. When conditions shift, rigid procurement, incomplete information and slow decisions increase risk and make projects less able to adapt. It is also feeding greater caution in the market. ONS data shows construction output has fallen for five straight three-month periods to February 2026.
In short, the market is harder to plan for and less predictable than it has been for many years.
Pipelines are strong, but confidence is weakening
This reflects what we see across the UK market.
Our Construction Certain Index research, based on a survey withmore than 1,000 senior construction and infrastructure leaders shows the impact. UK organisations lost an average of 12.3% of their project pipeline last year due to uncertainty. That is about £976 million per organisation.
We are seeing these losses play out through delays, cancellation and descoping. 26% percent were delayed, 21% were cancelled and 25% were descoped.
Uncertainty is not a future risk. It is already shaping decisions, slowing progress and reducing scope before construction begins.
Uncertainty is visible across most sectors
A large share of the UK project pipeline is being lost due to uncertainty. Volatility, not cost, now shapes delivery decisions.
Some pressures come from outside the industry, including geopolitical conflict, economic volatility and supply chain disruption. But others come from within, shaped by how projects are governed, procured and approved. And some are harder to fix, driven by limits on power, grid capacity and planning.
Our research shows uncertainty comes from both market conditions and the way projects are delivered. Overlapping regulation is a clear example. In the UK nuclear sector, developers deal with several regulators with shared responsibilities. This creates duplication, delays and unclear timelines.
The impact is direct. Costs rise and investor confidence falls. This slows delivery in a sector that is critical to energy security.
Digital infrastructure faces the same pressure. In data centres, the issue arises early. Power, planning and community concerns now decide if projects go ahead. Developers may have capital and demand. But without clear grid timelines or planning decisions, they delay and reprioritise projects.
Across real estate, both public and private organisations now take a staged approach to funding. This extends timelines and makes phasing more complex.
In each case, the issue is not a lack of opportunity. It is the ability to move forward with clarity.
Uncertainty now runs through the whole project lifecycle. It starts at feasibility, where risks around planning, policy and power make early decisions harder. It continues through procurement and delivery, where changing requirements add complexity.
The consequences are clear. Delays tie up capital, slow regeneration and reduce the pace of delivery. In sectors like energy and digital infrastructure, this affects both projects and the UK’s wider competitiveness.
How leading organisations are responding
Forward thinking organisations are adapting. They are not waiting for conditions to stabilise.
They are acting earlier. They invest more in planning and risk at the start. This helps them understand what could affect viability, from power and planning to cost and risk.
This gives them a stronger base for decisions. They can weigh options and move forward with more confidence. The focus is shifting. It is less about predicting one outcome and more about preparing for a range of scenarios.
This is changing how success is defined. In a shifting market, success depends on how well you manage uncertainty. Speed is no longer just about how fast projects are built. It is about how confidently decisions are made.
That means having the data, insight and expertise to assess options, make informed choices and keep projects moving.
Certainty does not remove risk. It determines which projects move forward, and which do not.